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Showing posts from April, 2020

Wednesday April 29th

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Government ministers no longer want to be grilled by Piers Morgan They prefer to be buttered up by Keir Starmer Government is promising to include deaths in care homes in the daily figures - which begs the question why they hadn't thought to do this before. Confirmed cases worldwide have now surpassed 3 million Deaths worldwide are just short of 220,000. In the UK deaths in hospital are 21,678. If deaths outside hospital are included the figure is over 28,000, whilst the Financial Times model puts the number of deaths at 47,100. UK Stats Date Days since first death 28/04/2020 54 Deaths   UK (Hospital deaths) 21,678 UK deaths adjusted to include non-hospital deaths 28,001 New hospital deaths (official) 586 New deaths adjusted to include care homes 757 Death Rate (hospital deaths) 13.45 Adjusted death rate 17.38 Increase in deaths over previous day (%) 2.8 This chart shows the hospital deaths data (as provided by the...

Tuesday April 28th

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Panorama exposes Government failings over Covid-19 PM says other countries could learn from the UK ONS  figures suggest at least 22% of deaths not in official figures Leaked report shows that Government were warned of pandemic and chose to ignore it  Over 3 million people worldwide have the virus It is likely that over 27,000 people in the UK have died from Covid-19 "Current success"? - this is the way the Tories are spinning their undoubted mishandling of the crisis. From ignoring their own Operation Cygnus recommendations to invest in PPE, to following a herd immunity strategy when no vaccine was available, to seemingly not quite understanding that The WHO is an international health organisation not a past-its-best rock group, everything the Government has done points to major inadequacies in their preparation and approach. Under normal circumstances being incompetent in Government is serious and it can cost lives, but on this occasion having advance war...

Monday April 27th

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There are now a lot of statistics flying about and this is causing a lot of confusion. Let me try to pick through this. The Government use deaths in hospital only. These are issued on a daily basis but are not, for technical reasons, the number of deaths in the last 24 hours as they have been widely reported in the press. The figure as of yesterday, today's figure has not been put on their website, is 20,732. The figure does not include deaths in care homes or deaths at home. Every Tuesday the ONS release data on place of death. Last week that data indicated that around 20% of deaths from Covid-19 were not occurring in hospitals. Adding that proportion to the hospital figure gives a total of 24,710. Meanwhile, the FT using daily death certificate data plus a model based on excess deaths compared to the previous 5 years, give us a figure of 41,102. Total deaths from Covid-19, United Kingdom Which of these figures is correct? None of them. The Government figure clear...

Saturday April 25th

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Headlines Shoplifting is declining, according to Home Secretary Priti Patel this is the good news from the Covid-19 crisis It has emerged that SAGE, the independent scientific advice group who the Government are hiding behind, had as a member Dominic Cummings the well known and influential scientist who in his spare time is a Special Advisor to the Prime Minister. Dominic Cummings graduated from Exeter College, Oxford in 1994 with a degree in Ancient and Modern History, the ideal background to advise the Government on the worst public health crisis in living memory The Guardian newspaper reports that the Government had a report the  National Security Risk Assessment published in 2019 and co-authored by Sir Patrick Valence, who is being lined up to take the fall for its lack of implementation, predicted that a virus was highly likely and could be responsible for over 65,000 deaths in 3 waves.   Date Days since first death 25/04/2020 51 Deaths   UK (Hosp...