Friday April 24th








Headlines

  • The Government are getting in deeper and deeper because of their utter inability to be on top of the stats. Piers Morgan is having a field day with his victim of the day, now often hapless backbenchers who, presumably, are ordered to appear.
  • Why commit to a figure for tests you have no plan or capacity for achieving. The 100,000 per day promised looks as remote as ever. Yesterday, there were 18,401 people tested, some 80,000 less than promised.
  • Today a massive investment to increase the amount has run into, predictable, problems as the website set up to manage them has crashed under the demand.
  • The Worldwide figure for deaths is creeping closer to 200,000 which will probably be reached over the weekend.
  • The confirmed cases figure is likely to make 3 million over the weekend, and that is probably an under-estimate given the issues with data collection
  • Hospital deaths in the UK are likely to pass 20,000 over the weekend, which means the real number of deaths will exceed 23,000.
  • The Scottish Government have announced that easing of the lockdown is likely to be a long-term process, something their counterparts in Westminster and Cardiff seem incredibly reluctant to do.
  • The hope that deaths were slowly going down has been dashed this week as the trend is still very clearly upwards (see graph)
  • The USA, where President Trump has suggested that injecting disinfectant could be a cure, has both the highest number of cases in the World, and over a quarter of all deaths, but also the most vocal opponents of measures to prevent the spread of the virus.
  • In the UK London is definitely the epicentre of the crisis with just short of a quarter of all hospital deaths
  • Wales reported over 100 deaths yesterday, a 17% increase over the previous day

Quote of the day

“whether it’s a capacity issue or an incompetence issue, the buck stops with Matt Hancock and if he can’t keep us safe ..he needs to make way for another..who can” Nadia Whittome MP on Newsnight

Uk Stats

DateDays since first deathWeekly comparison figures
24/04/202050
Deaths19,5065,777deaths in the past week
Note: these are hospital deaths only, the Government's preferred measure. The real death count, if deaths in care homes etc are included is closer to:UK Hospital deaths as % of Worldwide deaths12
Deaths adjusted to include non-hospital deaths23,249Germay deaths as % of Worldwide deaths3
New deaths (official)768Sweden deaths as % of Worldwide deaths0.1
Adjusted daily deaths*915
Death Rate**13.60Norway deaths as % of Worldwide deaths0.1
Adjusted death rate16.21
Increase in deaths over previous day (%)13.6USA deaths as % of Worldwide deaths26
Total tests carried out (persons)444,222
  in last 24 hours18,401NZ as % of Worldwide deaths0.01
How many less than Governments target81,599
  average per day since first death8,884
Negative (n/%)68
Positive (n/%)32
Percent population UK tested0.65%
*The adjusted death rate has been recalculated based on figures released on 21st April by ONS and the daily new deaths therefore takes this into account.                              **Please note that the death rate cited here is the number of deaths amongst those who have tested positive in tests. It should not be inferred from this that this is the proportion of the population who are likely to die.

Hospital deaths graph


4 nations

CasesIncrease in cases over prevous day (%)DeathsNew deathsPercentage increase in deaths over previous dayDeaths per 100k pop
England105,225317,372587331
Scotland9,69731,12058521
Wales8,601177511101724
N. ireland3,1222263110514
Data from 24th April

English Regions

Total confirmed casesIncrease over previous day (%)% 0f all UK deaths
 London 23,06317.0024
 South East 14,97414.77
 South West 5,528100.00
 North West 16,2521.30
 East 8,8783.90
 Midlandss 17,1132.16
 North East/Yorkshire 14,8723.63
Currently only able to find death rates for London. As soon as I can locate them for other English regions I will do so.

Article of the day

This is a bit egotistical I know but on my other (main) blog I just wrote an analysis of the current charitable efforts taking place to support the NHS. You can find it here


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Friday May 1st

Image
The UK Government continue to regard themselves as having led a successful campaign against the virus This despite all the evidence suggesting otherwise The death rate continues to rise, whilst the PM tells us that the peak has been reached Meanwhile, there are now over 3 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 worldwide In the UK there are 171,253 confirmed cases But, this excludes all the people who have not been tested and have the virus In particular this means that older people in care homes, those most at risk of dying, are not being counted And, in case we forget (the media have moved on) despite the claps and the charity singles health workers continue to work without adequate PPE And the result of this is that more and more of them are contracting the virus and a small but significant number of them are dying The UK government, under some pressure, has finally agreed to include all deaths in the daily totals. UK total yesterday was 26,771
Read more

Tuesday April 28th

Image
Panorama exposes Government failings over Covid-19 PM says other countries could learn from the UK ONS  figures suggest at least 22% of deaths not in official figures Leaked report shows that Government were warned of pandemic and chose to ignore it  Over 3 million people worldwide have the virus It is likely that over 27,000 people in the UK have died from Covid-19 "Current success"? - this is the way the Tories are spinning their undoubted mishandling of the crisis. From ignoring their own Operation Cygnus recommendations to invest in PPE, to following a herd immunity strategy when no vaccine was available, to seemingly not quite understanding that The WHO is an international health organisation not a past-its-best rock group, everything the Government has done points to major inadequacies in their preparation and approach. Under normal circumstances being incompetent in Government is serious and it can cost lives, but on this occasion having advance war
Read more

Tuesday May 5th

Image
It seems highly likely that the UK lockdown will be eased this coming weekend. There is little in the way of agreement about what exactly this will mean. 12 countries - including Germany, Spain, Greece, Belgium, Lithuania, France, Nigeria and Lebanon - started to ease their lockdowns yesterday. In most countries this was to promote economic growth, but only some stores and industries were allowed to open. In Germany the easing of restrictions included allowing hairdressers and barbers to open. Both the infection rate (counted by positive tests for those who can get them) and deaths (where Covid-19 is included on the death certificate) continue to rise. As of yesterday, there were 28,734 deaths and 190,584 positive tests. Date Days since first death 04/05/2020 60 Deaths   UK (All deaths) 28,734 New deaths (official) 288 Death Rate (hospital deaths) 15.08 Increase in deaths over previous day (%) 1.0 Tests carried out UK Total tests carried out      
Read more