Monday April 6th 2020

Quote of the day:

"The critical thing first is to get case numbers down, and then I'm hopeful... in a few weeks' time we will be able to move to a regime which will not be normal life, let me emphasise that, but will be somewhat more relaxed in terms of social distancing and the economy, but relying more on testing."  
Professor Neil Ferguson (Imperial College London) suggesting that physical distancing could be relaxed in the next week to seven days

Comparison stat of the day

There are normally around half a million deaths in England and Wales each year. For this year the total number of deaths (to March 20th) is 112,604 of which 108 were attributed to Covid-19. Assuming the death rate for England and Wales rises at 1.56% (as it has for the past 2 years) independently of Covid-19 we would expect the rate for March 20th to be around 126,000. However, as we can see from the table below death rates are not consistent year to year, so any attempt to calculate the additional deaths caused by Covid-19 will have to be highly speculative.
YearAll deaths England & WalesPercent increase over previous year
2018541,5891.56
2017533,2531.56
2016525,048-0.87
2015529,6555.63
2014501,424-1.06
2013506,7901.49
2012499,3313.09
2011      484,367 -1.80
2010493,2420.39
2009491,348-3.49
2008509,0901.00
2007504,0520.29
2006502,599-2.03
2005512,993-0.24
2004514,250-4.62
2003539,1510.71
2002535,3560.54
2001532,498-1.00
2000537,877

Headlines

  • There have now been1,275,037 Covid-19 confirmed cases world wide.
  • There have been 69,501 Covid-19 deaths world wide.
  • There have now been 4,934 Covid-19 related hospital deaths in the UK since March 5th.
  • Yesterday there were 621 new deaths, a slight drop on the previous day, but this may be because of the way deaths are reported.
  • The death rate (calculated by hospital deaths to positive tests) remains 10.3%
  • The UK has carried out 195,524 tests in total.
  • The daily average of tests is 6,307 (since the uK's first death on March 5th)
  • 76% of tests are negative
  • There are now 47,806 confirmed cases of Covid-19 (but these are only of those actually tested)
  • The Government have "promised" that there will be 100,000 tests per day by the end of April
  • Scotland had an increase of 27%, Northern Ireland had a 17% increase in deaths over the previous day
  • Based on the available statistics and an overall death rate of 0.86% of confirmed cases, it is possible that 133,543 people in the UK will die from Covid-19 related deaths. The peak, meaning the point at which the death rate will start to come down could be 1st May. But, note these figures should be treated with extreme caution as they are based only on the known data and quite a lot of extrapolation.

UK Statistics

DateDays since first death
05/04/202031
  
Deaths4,934
New deaths621
Death Rate10.32
Increase in deaths over previous day (%)14.4
Total tests carried out195,524
Negative (n/%)147,71876%
Positive (n/%)47,80624%
  
Percent population UK tested0.29%


4 Nations


CasesIncrease in cases over prevous dayDeathsNew deathsPercentage increase in deaths over previous day
England39,814154,49455514
Scotland3,706112184627
Wales3,19712166128
N. ireland1,089256817

English Regions


 Total confirmed casesIncrease over previous day (%)
 London 11,97831.32
 South East 4,57611.97
 South West 1,8274.78
 North West 4,82612.62
 East 3,1508.24
 Midlandss 6,91318.08
 North East/Yorkshire 4,96912.99

Covid Curves


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