Saturday April 4th




Quote of the day:

I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. Bruce Aylward, World Health Organisation interviewed on March 3rd 2020 by Wired Magazine

Comparison stat of the day

The UK has seen a rise in homelessness, an important indicator of poverty, of 168% between 2010 and 2017. The number of households in temporary accommodation has risen by 60% over the same period. Almost 5 million people were estimated to be homeless in 2017, and the figure has risen since then. The UK has the 4th or 5th largest economy in the World.

Headlines

  • There have now been 1,130,089 Covid-19 confirmed cases world wide.
  • There have been 60,112 Covid-19 deaths world wide.
  • There have now been 3,605 Covid-19 related hospital deaths in the UK since March 5th.
  • Yesterday there were 658 new deaths, a new high.
  • The death rate (calculated by hospital deaths to positive tests) is now 9.45%
  • The UK has carried out 173,784 tests in total.
  • The daily average of tests is 5,993
  • 78% of tests are negative. Positive tests are increasing.
  • There are now 38,168 confirmed cases of Covid-19 (but these are only of those actually tested)
  • The Government have "promised" that there will be 100,000 tests per day by the end of April
  • Scotland had a 66% increase in confirmed cases (positive tests) over the previous day
  • The South-West continues to have the lowest number of confirmed cases and the lowest daily increase in cases.
  • Italy which had its first death 13 days prior to the UK, now has a death rate of 14,681, and yesterday had a daily increase of 766 deaths. It's rate continues to rise.
  • Based on the available statistics and an overall death rate of 0.86% of confirmed cases (of course the actual death rate could be considerably higher or lower than this), it is possible that 128,224 people in the UK will die from Covid-19 related deaths. The peak, meaning the point at which the death rate will start to come down could be 25/26 April 2020. This is based on an assumption that the daily death rate will continue to rise at the same rate as yesterday. At the moment it is increasing daily. But, note these figures should be treated with extreme caution as they are based only on the known data and quite a lot of extrapolation.

UK Statistics

DateDays since first death
02/04/202029
  
Deaths3,605
New deaths684
Death Rate9.45
Increase in deaths over previous day (%)23.4
Total tests carried out173,784
Negative (n/%)135,61678%
Positive (n/%)38,16822%
  
Percent population UK tested0.26%

4 Nations


CasesIncrease in cases over prevous dayDeathsNew deathsPercentage increase in deaths over previous day
England31,797133,30260422
Scotland3,001151265066
Wales2,466161412421
N. ireland904 36620

English Regions


 Total confirmed casesIncrease over previous day (%)
 London 10,24733.44
 South East 3,73212.18
 South West 1,3864.52
 North West 3,53711.54
 East 2,3847.78
 Midlandss 5,53718.07
 North East/Yorkshire 3,82312.47

Stat of the day


Homelessness in the UK, 2010-2017
 Homeless peopleYearly increase/decrease (%)% inc 2010 - 2017Household in temp accomYearly increase/decrease (%)% inc 2010 - 2017
20101,768,000  49680  
20112,181,00023.449100-1.2
20122,309,0005.9529607.9
20132,414,0004.5574108.4
20142,744,00013.7609006.1
20153,569,00030.16856012.6
20164,134,00015.8747509.0
20174,751,00014.9168.7793306.159.7
Source: UK Government/Office of National Statistics

Total deaths, linear curve

This shows the way in which deaths in the UK from Covid 19 have increased sharply since March 16th. They continue to rise.
For comparison purposes, this is the curve from Italy who recorded 766 deaths yesterday and whose daily rates continue to rise. Italy's total death rate is now 14,681.


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