Stats at 2 p.m. 14/04/20

Headlines

• There have now been 120.857 deaths worldwide from Covid-19
• There are an estimated 1,938,840 confirmed cases of Covid-19 worldwide
• There have now been 12,107 deaths in hospital from Covid-19
• The true figure for deaths is likely to be closer to 13,384 (see ONS weekly stats below)
• A further 11,879 people were tested yesterday bringing the proportion to 0.45% of the population
• England has now had over 11,000 deaths
• Whilst London remains the epicentre of the UK epidemic, the rate of confirmed new cases has slowed down to 2.6% over the previous day, its lowest rate since the outbreak began
• New ONS figures suggest that the UK Government is systematically under-counting by almost 10% the true death rate by excluding all deaths which occur outside of hospital.
• The figures exclude Scotland and Northern Ireland and so the undercounting is likely to be even greater than this.
• This could mean that the official figure is undercounting by over 1,000 deaths.
• The ONS stats indicate that 35% of all Covid-19 deaths in England and Wales are in London
• Deaths amongst NHS staff are difficult to track but to date there have been 31 known deaths (listed below)

Quote of the day

"I know that Keir has been seeking to work with government as much as is possible and he’s had a number of discussions, as I understand it, with different individuals involved with government.  We’re seeking to have as constructive a relationship as possible and obviously we’re trying to do that in a spirit to get us to the best place that we can be as a nation."  Shadow Chancellor, Anneliese Dodds explains how Labour are holding the Tories to account during the Covid-19 crisis.

NHS Staff Who Have Died From Covid-19

Barbara Moore, 54, Aintree University Hospital

Kevin Smith, Doncaster Royal Infirmary

Melujean Ballesteros, 60, Queen Mary's Hospital, London

Sara Trollope, 51 Matron, Hillingdon Hospital

Donna Campbell, Velindre Hospital, Cardiff

Oscar King Jr, John Radcliff Hospital, Oxford

Elsie Sazuze, 44, Birmingham

Elbert Rico, John Radcliff Hospital, Oxford

Donald Suelto, Hammersmith Hospital, London

Gareth Roberts, University Hospital of Wales in Cardiff
Alice Kit Tak Ong, the Royal Free HospitalLeilani Dayrit, 47, St Cross Hospital, Rugby

Jitendra Rathod, University Hospital of Wales in Cardiff

Dr Fayez Ayache, 76, GP, Sussex
Rebecca Mack, Newcastle

Janice Graham, 58, Iverclyde Hospital, Scotland

Dr Syed Zishan Haider, 79, Valance Medical Centre, in Dagenham, east London

Anton Sebastianpillai, Kingston Hospital

John Alagos, Watford
Glen Corbin, Brent, north west London
Liz Glanister, Royal Liverpool University Hospital
Areema Nasreen, Walsall Manor Hospital
Prof Mohamed Sami Shousha, London
Lynsay Coventry, Mid Essex Hospital Services NHS Trust
Aimee O’Rourke, Queen Elizabeth The Queen Mother Hospital, Margate
Dr Alfa Sa'adu, Whittington Hospital
Thomas Harvey, Upper Clapton
Amged El-Hawrani, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester
Pooja Sharma, East SussexDr Habib Zaidi, Southend Hospital
Dr Adil El Tayar, West Middlesex University Hospital
Julie Omar, 52, Alexandra Hospital, Redditch

UK Stats

Date	Days since first death		Weekly comparison figures
14/04/2020	40
Deaths	12,107		5,010	deaths in the past week
New deaths	778		41	% of deaths in the past week
Death Rate	12.90		850	Average new deaths each day (over past 7 days)
Increase in deaths over previous day (%)	4.0
Adjusted deaths	13,384		Adjusted figures include 10% that are excluded from hospital figures
Adjusted daily deaths	860
Total tests carried out (persons)	302,599		69,891	people tested in the past week
in last 24 hours	11,879		12,774	average of new tests (past 7 days)
average per day since first death	7,565
Negative (n/%)	69		-21	% negative tests
Positive (n/%)	31		54	% more positive tests
Percent population UK tested	0.45%		0.10	of the population tested since last week

4 Nations

	Cases	Increase in cases over prevous day (%)	Deaths	New deaths	Percentage increase in deaths over previous day
England	73,183	6	11,005	744	7
Scotland	6,358	5	575	9	2
Wales	5,848	4	403	19	5
N. ireland	1,967	2	124	6	5

English Regions

	Total confirmed cases	Increase over previous day (%)
London	18,472	2.62
South East	9,334	9.59
South West	3,578	5.48
North West	11,136	11.06
East	6,089	1.45
Midlandss	11,987	5.45
North East/Yorkshire	9,686	6.92

ONS Weekly death stats

Each week ONS issues a spreadsheet containing the mortality data for England and Wales. 

This data, unlike the Covid-19 data being produced by the Dept of Health is based on death certificate registrations. It gives information otherwise not available. This includes the age at death and place of death.

We can see in the first chart that the age range of Covid-19 deaths pretty much matches the 'normal' death rate data. Covid-19 deaths are no more likely to be in the older age groups which runs counter to what we have believed about Covid-19 since it emerged. 

• There have been no Covid-19 deaths in the under 14 age group which accounts for around 0.6% of other deaths
• The over 70's account for 80% of Covid-19 deaths, just 1% higher than all deaths.

However, we can see that Covid-19 deaths are far more likely to occur in London. 

• 35% of all C19 deaths are in London which would normally expect to account for around 10% of all deaths.
• The North-East only has 3.65% of C19 deaths, but 5% of all deaths. 

It would seem that C19 is certainly centred on larger urban areas, particularly London.

The ONS data includes place of residence. The official C19 data only gives hospital deaths. We can see from this data that this figure is probably under-estimating the figure by 10%. In particular, care homes (which are excluded from the official count) are 5.28% of the total.

	Deaths by age group
	All deaths	All deaths %	C19 deaths	C19 deaths %
<1	696	0.42	0	0.00
1-4	107	0.06	0	0.00
5-9	61	0.04	0	0.00
10-14	80	0.05	0	0.00
15-19	215	0.13	3	0.07
20-24	336	0.20	3	0.07
25-29	426	0.26	6	0.15
30-34	667	0.40	13	0.32
35-39	1,028	0.62	15	0.36
40-44	1,390	0.84	12	0.29
45-49	2,354	1.41	50	1.21
50-54	3,826	2.30	75	1.82
55-59	5,481	3.29	155	3.76
60-64	7,424	4.46	202	4.90
65-69	10,379	6.24	277	6.72
70-74	16,518	9.92	469	11.38
75-79	20,686	12.43	646	15.67
80-84	26,833	16.12	800	19.41
85-89	30,761	18.48	743	18.03
90+	37,168	22.33	653	15.84
	166,436		4,122
	Deaths by region of residence
	All deaths	All deaths (%)	C19 deaths	C19 deaths (%)
North East	8,440	5.08	150	3.65
North West	22,413	13.49	491	11.96
Yorkshire and The Humber	16,071	9.68	191	4.65
East Midlands	14,101	8.49	212	5.16
West Midlands	17,447	10.50	483	11.76
East	17,903	10.78	298	7.26
London	16,411	9.88	1,451	35.33
South East	25,592	15.41	499	12.15
South West	17,353	10.45	175	4.26
Wales	10,376	6.25	157	3.82
	Deaths by place of residence
	All deaths	All deaths (%)	C19 deaths	C19 deaths (%)
Home	136	3.31	136	3.31
Hospital (acute or community, not psychiatric)	3703	90.16	3,716	90.48
Hospice	33	0.80	33	0.80
Care Home	216	5.26	217	5.28
Other communal establishment	3	0.07	3	0.07
Elsewhere	16	0.39	17	0.41
All deaths	4107		4122