Tuesday April 21st

Headlines

  • ONS weekly figures (see below) show that the Government is under-reporting deaths from Covid-19 by almost 20%, the majority deaths in care homes
  • The official figure for UK deaths is 17,337. The true figure is probably closer to 20,664
  • The UK despite being an exemplar in preparedness (see below) accounts for 12.3% of the deaths from Covid-19 in the World
  • Germany which is approximately 1.25 times the size of the UK accounts for just 2.3% of the Worlds deaths
  • After falling for 2 days the official number of deaths almost doubled overnight
  • The graph (see below) shows clearly that the UK is nowhere close to a peak yet as the line continues to rise
  • Despite widely reported claims that Oxford University were close to a vaccine the World Health Organisation's envoy David Navarro (Professor of Global Health, Imperial College, London) told The Observer that the public should not assume that a vaccine was likely in the foreseeable future and that we should be preparing to live with Covid-19 for some time.

Quote of the Day

"The UK has been an international exemplar in preparedness." - Dr Jenny Harries, England’s deputy chief medical officer, still covering for an incompetent government to the amazement of almost everybody else, as the UK heads for 20,000 deaths making it 5th worst in the World behind USA, Italy, France and Spain.

ONS Weekly Data

How many deaths are there?

Place of death
All deaths recorded on a death certificate from 1st January - April 10th
 COVID-19 deathsPercentages
 
Hospital (acute or community, not psychiatric)     8,673        83.9 
Hospice          87          0.8 
Care Home     1,043        10.1 
Other communal establishment          21          0.2 
Home        466          4.5 
Elsewhere          45          0.4 
   
All   10,335  
Hospital deaths867383.9
Non-hospital deaths166216.1
Source: Office of National Statistics
These are deaths from Covid-19 as recorded on death statistics. The Government is only reporting hospital deaths. What these figures show quite clearly is that the hospital total is only 83.9% of the total. That figure is 16.1% below the actual figure.
It is notable that of that disparity the majority, 10%, are in care homes.

And what ages are most at risk


This is a big pie and the biggest slice is over 70's who make up 80% of the deaths in the UK. Please note these are the ONS figures, not the deaths in hospital figures. The actual numbers are:

Deaths from Covid-19, England and Wales
All deaths recorded on a death certificate from 1st January - April 10th
 Number of deathsPercentage of total
Under 1500
15-29280.3
30-492232.2
50-69180317.4
70+828180.1
All10,335100

UK Stats

DateDays since first deathWeekly comparison figures
21/04/202047
  
Deaths17,3374,469deaths in the past week
Note: these are hospital deaths only, the Government's preferred measure. The real death count, if deaths in care homes etc are included is closer to:   
Deaths adjusted to include non-hospital deaths20,664   
New deaths (official)82826% of deaths in the past week
Adjusted daily deaths*2414   
Death Rate**13.43745Average new deaths each day (over past 7 days)
Adjusted death rate16.01 
Increase in deaths over previous day (%)5.0 
Total tests carried out (persons)397,67083,901people tested in the past week
  in last 24 hours11,626The Government set itself a target of 100,000 tests per day by the end of April
How many less than Governments target88,374   
  average per day since first death8,461   
Negative (n/%)68 -25% negative tests
Positive (n/%)24 31% more positive tests
  
Percent population UK tested0.59%0.12of the population tested since last week
*The adjusted death rate has been recalculated based on figures released on 21st April by ONS and the daily new deaths therefore takes this into account.                              **Please note that the death rate cited here is the number of deaths amongst those who have tested positive in tests. It should not be inferred from this that this is the proportion of the population who are likely to die.

Daily Death Rate Starts To Rise Again



4 Nations

Please note that these figures refer only to positive tests (cases) of the less than 1% who have been tested. Deaths refers only to deaths in hospitals and excludes deaths in care homes etc.

CasesIncrease in cases over prevous day (%)DeathsNew deathsPercentage increase in deaths over previous day
England96,117615,6061,2078
Scotland8,6726915222
Wales7,8508609346
N. ireland2,7582207147
Data from 20th April

English Regions

 Total confirmed casesIncrease over previous day (%)
 London 22,0723.35
 South East 13,6568.70
 South West 5,0458.05
 North West 14,7886.61
 East 7,9676.57
 Midlandss 15,4886.22
 North East/Yorkshire 13,0576.36

Article of the day

You can get all the Covid-19 data you need right here, but you might want a bit of light reading. I enjoyed this:
Is the virus on my shoes

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